Murad Mahmudov
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| handle | @MustStopMurad |
|---|---|
| role | analyst, thesis maker, holder |
| known for | the memecoin supercycle thesis, SPX6900 evangelism, Token2049 2024 speech |
Murad Mahmudov is a crypto analyst who authored the memecoin supercycle thesis and became the most prominent evangelist of SPX6900.
Murad Mahmudov is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor best known for the memecoin supercycle thesis, which he presented at Token2049 Singapore in September 2024, and for his near religious promotion of SPX6900. More than any single trader, Murad supplied the trenches with an intellectual framework: the claim that meme coins are not jokes but digital cults, and that holding them together is a coordination game that can mint generational wealth.
Background
Mahmudov was born in Azerbaijan and moved to the United States at 16, graduating from Princeton in the class of 2016. According to a Datawallet profile, he first encountered Bitcoin during a 2013 exchange program in Beijing, where he met early employees of the exchange OKCoin, then worked in traditional finance at Goldman Sachs and Glencore before going full time into crypto in 2017. He first became widely known in the 2018 to 2019 period as a Bitcoin focused analyst and podcast guest. In 2019 he co founded Adaptive Capital, an on chain analytics hedge fund, with David Puell and his brother Misir Mahmudov; the fund collapsed in March 2020 after losing more than half its value in the COVID crash amid exchange infrastructure failures. Crypto media later described him as a former Bitcoin maximalist who rebranded himself as the leading meme coin evangelist of the 2024 cycle, and by 2024 his X account, MustStopMurad, had become one of the most followed voices in meme coin speculation. Datawallet describes the handle as tongue in cheek self mockery of how often people demand that he be stopped, a description rather than a documented origin story.
The memecoin supercycle
In his Token2049 Singapore presentation, titled The Memecoin Supercycle, Mahmudov argued that meme coins would lead the coming market phase the way ICOs led 2017 and DeFi led 2020, and that the winners would be driven by culture, community identity, and belief rather than technology. He framed the strongest meme coins as communities united by humor and faith, closer to digital religions than to financial assets, and urged holders never to sell. The speech was widely clipped and became one of the most referenced artifacts of the cycle on crypto twitter.
Murad picks and SPX6900
A basket of tokens he publicly endorsed, including SPX6900, GIGA, MOG, and popcat, became known as Murad picks or Murad memes, and several rallied sharply on his endorsements. He has articulated explicit selection criteria: market caps between 5 and 200 million dollars, Ethereum and Solana tokens only, a minimum six month history that has survived a 70 percent drawdown, exclusion of celebrity, political, and animal coins, and a market cap to holder ratio he treats as a metric of emotional resonance. His influence grew so large that in October 2024 the on chain investigator ZachXBT published wallets attributed to him, 11 in all, 8 on Ethereum and 3 on Solana; Cointelegraph reported the wallets held about 70 million dollars in meme coins, led by an SPX6900 position showing more than 66 million dollars in unrealized profit from an entry near one cent. Lookonchain calculated that he had spent about 387,000 dollars buying 35.69 million SPX between June 2 and August 16, 2024 across four wallets, at the time a roughly 61x gain worth over 23 million dollars. ZachXBT's accompanying charge was that "Murad is promoting microcap meme coins to thousands and thousands of followers while controlling the supply", an accusation of accumulation before promotion; part of the community answered that he had done nothing wrong, and the split was never adjudicated. He also produced promotional stunts such as a video titled 150 Reasons Why SPX6900 Will Reach 1 Trillion Dollar Market Cap.
The 2026 drawdown
The thesis was tested severely in the 2026 memecoin winter. BeInCrypto and other outlets reported in 2026 that SPX6900 had fallen roughly 88 percent from its all time high near 2.27 dollars, and that Mahmudov continued to hold approximately 30 million SPX, then worth under 8 million dollars, without meaningful exits despite tens of millions in unrealized losses. Cryptopolitan argued in March 2025 that the public doxxing of his wallets, combined with round the clock community surveillance, had made profit taking at the peaks socially impossible for him; his tracked wallet was then down 39 percent from its high, and his response on March 10, 2025 was simply "The bounces will be glorious". Datawallet put his net worth at about 9.01 million dollars in February 2026, over 95 percent of it in SPX6900, with his last recorded trade months old and a posting cadence of roughly ten SPX6900 posts a day. Cointelegraph crowned him the "Memecoin messiah" in an April 2, 2026 piece tallying roughly 60 million dollars in unrealized losses over nine months, from a portfolio peak of 67 million dollars in July 2025 down to about 8.1 million, with 29.964 million SPX making up 96 percent of the tracked portfolio and zero realized profit or loss recorded on DropsTab.
He remained publicly unmoved, posting on April 5, 2026 that SPX6900 was "stabilizing and flattening at the same market cap that DOGE and PEPE have stabilized" before their runs to 87 billion and 12 billion dollars, adding "Except this time SPX6900 will go much, much higher". On August 17, 2026 he posted "In September 2024, I predicted that Memecoins will be a >$1 Trillion asset class. I fully stand by my prediction.", with his X following then about 722,800, and an August 2026 podcast promo for his return appearance noted a drawdown of more than 50 million dollars, that he had not sold a single token, and that he still called SPX a more than 1 trillion dollar opportunity. The postmortem discourse acquired a canonical artifact in an August 7, 2026 thread comparing 2024 and 2026 market caps of the Murad era coins, POPCAT from 530 million dollars to 42 million, MOG from 518 million to 39 million, GIGA from 167 million to 17 million, and apu apustaja from 90 million to 6.7 million, under the verdict that the memecoin supercycle did not happen; even that debunk table conceded SPX6900 itself had risen from 10 million to 314 million dollars. Supporters cite his refusal to sell as proof of conviction; critics, quoted throughout 2025 and 2026 coverage, describe the supercycle as a belief system that transferred losses to late believers. Both readings agree on his significance: Murad turned holding a meme coin into an ideology, and much of trench culture still argues in his vocabulary.
The Murad sold meme
The recurring rumor that Murad has secretly sold his bags has a concrete flashpoint. In February 2025, social media posts claimed he had offloaded about 20 million dollars of SPX for 13 million dollars in an off chain OTC deal involving Galaxy; Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn publicly dismissed the claims, and portfolio trackers continued to show no meaningful sales. The episode did not settle anything, because "Murad sold" survives on crypto twitter as a chain letter format rather than a factual claim: in July 2026 a small account announced that his wallet number 7 had sold 10,000 dollars of SPX6900 and "will sell more", answered by the reply "murad sold, pass it on", and an August 2026 joke claimed he had sold his wallet to Wintermute. Defenders answer with the on chain record, as in one August 2026 reply noting his doxxed wallet "has held... over 18 months. Study that. Never sold". The meme is unresolved by design; trackers keep showing him holding.
References
- token2049.com: https://token2049.com/previous-sessions/murad-mahmudov---the-memecoin-supercycle---token2049-singapore-2024
- Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/news/murad-mahmudov-memecoin-supercycle-spx-holdings-controversy
- Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/news/memecoin-supercycle-crypto-markets
- The Defiant: https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/murad-memes-bounce-back
- BeInCrypto: https://beincrypto.com/spx-drops-murad-makes-new-predictions/
- Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/murad-67-million-bet-spx6900-065916516.html
- Gate Learn: https://www.gate.com/crypto-wiki/article/murad-s-meme-coin-supercycle-betting-on-cult-coins-for-epic-gains
- datawallet.com: https://www.datawallet.com/crypto/murad-mahmudov
- Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/memecoin-messiah-lost-60m-trading-spx6900-giga-hes-still-not-selling
- BeInCrypto: https://beincrypto.com/galaxy-executive-denies-spx-sale-murad/
- BeInCrypto: https://beincrypto.com/zachxbt-murad-meme-coin-wallet-addresses/
- mitrade.com: https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-403024-20241010
- Cryptopolitan: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/murad-mahmudov-doxxed-meme-wallet-loss/
- Bitget: https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605338412
- X post by @MustStopMurad: https://x.com/MustStopMurad/status/2089329532230607322
- X post by @WWGT2M: https://x.com/WWGT2M/status/2089987855498023356
- X post by @MarkWallbag: https://x.com/MarkWallbag/status/2083238501965848822
- X post by @archm1chael: https://x.com/archm1chael/status/2083290512916885962
- X post by @agrsvfarmr: https://x.com/agrsvfarmr/status/2089383438256128464
- X post by @Tariff_Ai: https://x.com/Tariff_Ai/status/2084847719877910787
- X post by @FlipStockMarket: https://x.com/FlipStockMarket/status/2087940101200339406
- X post by @StarPlatinum_: https://x.com/StarPlatinum_/status/2085727470502694949
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